Friday, February 17, 2006

Bracket Buster Breakdown


I love the idea of the Bracket Buster. College basketball junkies (and gamblers) spend the entire year watching all these small conference teams battle each other. It becomes easy to get a sense of the haves and have-nots in each conference. What's more difficult is ranking the conferences themselves. Its hard to determine whether Akron (out of the MAC) is a better team than Nevada (WAC). If both teams didn't win their conference crapshoots at the end of the year, how would the committee determine whether they deserved an NCAA bid? It would pretty much be a guessing game.
that's where this weekend comes in. One game can't tell the whole story, but at least it is a start. With many power conference teams struggling to pad their NCAA chances, there is going to be room for a handful of mid-major at-large teams. If these teams want to move to the top of the list, a win this weekend would go a long way towards getting them in the field.
While Bracket Buster Saturday is a great chance for the Ionas and Pacifics of the world to get some national play, it could be better. Instead of giving the little guys their due and making this weekend an event, ESPN half-heartedly approaches it. Most glaring is the fact that the first game on ESPN Saturday is a marginal Atlantic 10 conference game between Fordham and Charlotte. This seems to happen every year. Find me someone excited about that game. Find me someone that would rather watch that than, say, Nevada-Akron. I could even live without Michigan-Michigan St. and Syracuse-Cincinnati. I wish ESPN would go full-force with the bracket buster. I guess Northern Iowa doesn't bring in the big ratings but I'm hard-pressed to believe that Fordham, Nebraska and Penn St. do any better nationally.
Here is a look at the important games and what is at stake:
  • Albany at VCU (tonight, 7) - VCU is a fringe contender for an at-large bid out of the strong Colonial Athletic Conference. George Mason, Old Dominion and UNC-Wilmington would seem to be ahead of the Rams for an at-large. The final two rounds of the CAA tournament could be as good as anywhere in the country. VCU should handle Albany, who is the class of the America East. The Great Danes should win their way into the dance, but they are outclassed here.
  • Akron at Nevada (tonight, 9) - Akron has come out of nowhere to lead the MAC at 12-2. Nevada came in with lofty expectations and an All American candidate (Nick Fazekas) and has been solid, if unspectacular, leading the WAC at 9-3. With the depth of the MAC and the weakness of the WAC, this may be an elimination game as far as an at-large. Both teams could win their way in, but if they want to be asked, they need this win.
  • Buffalo at Iona (Sat., 12) - This should be an interesting game between cross-state rivals, but neither the Bulls, in the middle of the MAC, nor the Gaels, leading the MAAC can hope for an at-large bid. The Gaels should get there anyhow and tomorrow have a chance to gain some respect for the MAAC with two A's.
  • Marist at Old Dominion (Sat., 4) - ODU, a tournament team last season, is a contender for a second CAA bid. A loss to MAAC also-ran Marist will end those chances.
  • Missouri St. at Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Sat., 2) - Another elimination-type game. Mizzou St. comes in as the fifth best team in the strong Missouri Valley Conference. Wisconsin-Milwaukee comes in as the best team in the low-major Horizon League. Neither of those resumes would seem to be enough to get in, but a loss tomorrow would end all hope.
  • Louisiana Tech at Southern Illinois (Sat., 6) - La Tech's at-large chances, if they existed, ended with the buzzer-beater loss in Nevada. Southern Illinois is a perennial dancer, but they are below three teams in the MVC and that shouldn't get you a trip this year. A home loss to the Bulldogs would be devastating.
  • George Mason at Wichita St. (Sat., 8) - This is a game between two teams who, one way or another, will be on your bracket in a month. A win here will help seeding and help the committee determine whether the MVC or the CAA, arguably the strongest mid-majors, is the better league.
  • Bucknell at Northern Iowa (Sat., 12) - Considered the best game of the lot, nationally ranked Bucknell and the Panthers of Northern Iowa are near-locks to get an at-large bid. Bucknell should have no problem winning the Patriot League tournament and Northern Iowa could well win the MVC. A win here would lock up a spot should they falter.
  • Picks of the Day:
  • VCU (-8) over Albany
  • Loyola Maryland (-6) over High Point
  • Yesterday: 1-2

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