MLB '06: The Good, The Bad and The Royals

AL East

1) New York Yankees

The Good: Their payroll is gigantic. They have very few holes and any holes that sprout up will be filled midseason. Their lineup is basically a list of all-stars. Their closer is the best of all time and finished last year with a 1.38 ERA. Pitching staff is deep with at least seven solid starters that every other team would love to have. Randy Johnson settling into new habitat, Chien-Ming Wang just getting better, Carl Pavano (possibly) returning from injury. 6 starters hit .290 or better last year.

The Bad: Johnny Damon is 32 and, while dealing with age, will have to deal with Bronx environment. Alex Rodriguez seems to be at his worst when it matters most. Gary Sheffield and Jason Giambi (might be) off the steroids. Mike Mussina struggled this spring. Shawn Chacon's career ERA is around 5. Bench is thinner than usual. Giambi will painfully attempt to play first base.

The Verdict: By far, the most talented team in the league. They always win the division and will do so again by at least five games. Damon is not as good as advertised but still is a major factor. Big Unit has a much better year. ARod again wins MVP, again inexplicably chooses to wear italian suit to Home Run Derby. Squeeze by A's in difficult 5 game series, but fall to White Sox in ALCS.

2) Boston Red Sox

The Good: David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez are best back-to-back combination in baseball. Both are nearly guaranteed to knock in at least 130 runs. Added Josh Beckett to form imposing rotation. Coco Crisp replaces Damon and, unlike his predecessor, he is able to throw better than my sister. Curt Schilling is a year healthier. Jonathan Paplebon could prove to be a solid 3rd starter or a lights-out closer. Defense vastly improved with the additions of Crisp, Alex Gonzalez and Mike Lowell. Wily Mo Pena will be perfect complement to Trot Nixon.

The Bad: Keith Foulke has tricked enough people into believing his 84 MPH fastball and 84 MPH changeup will get people out. Manny Ramirez's head could be anywhere. Schilling (5.69 ERA last year) is a year older. Mike Lowell was one of the league's worst hitters last year and the spring hasn't been promising. Matt Clement was awful after the break last year while David Wells is 40 and openly hates the Red Sox. Julian Tavarez may be better fit for a mental ward than a bullpen.


The Verdict: The team really shouldn't be any worse than last year. Ortiz and Ramirez are able to hide weak spots by carrying the offense. Schilling will be much better if the ankle holds up and will win 15 games. Beckett won't win the Cy Young nor will he come close. The green monster will help Lowell somewhat regain his form. Foulke won't be the closer come May 1. The team will win a close wild card chase with the Angels but Ortiz will be out of dramatics by October and the team will again fall to the White Sox in the divisional series.

3) Toronto Blue Jays

The Good: Most importantly, Roy Halladay is healthy. The team finally made a strong commitment to winning in the offseason. Troy Glaus and Lyle Overbay give the Blue Jays a solid heart of the order. Vernon Wells, who hit 28 HRs last year, is entering the prime of his career. B.J. Ryan finally gives Jays a legitimate closer. Back end of the rotation (Gustavo Chacin, Josh Towers, Ted Lilly) servicable.

The Bad: A.J. Burnett just isn't as good as people make him out to be. If he was, he would have been pitching in September last year. He's also got some injury concerns with his arm. Russ Adams and Aaron Hill have yet to prove that they are Major League hitters. Corner outfielders will probably be a mixing and matching, which is less than desirable in a division like this.

The Verdict: Halladay wins 20 games and another Cy Young Award. The team wins 85 and another third place award. Wells improves his numbers and becomes a legitimate star. Overbay continues to improve, but Burnett is a complete bust and the team doesn't challenge down the stretch.

4) Baltimore Orioles

The Good: The arrival of Leo Mazzone has made every Orioles pitcher look like a candidate for a breakout season. Chris Ray appears ready to settle into closer's role. All four infielders (Melvin Mora, Miguel Tejada, Brian Roberts and Javy Lopez) should put up solid numbers. Jay Gibbons is an underrated power threat. Sammy Sosa and Rafael Palmeiro are long gone.

The Bad: Kevin Millar and Corey Patterson, bonafide castoffs, are penciled into the lineup. Hard to see them bouncing back. Tejada and Roberts struggled in the second half last year. The rotation ranges from the unspectacular (Rodrigo Lopez, Bruce Chen) to the unproven (Daniel Cabrera, Erik Bedard) to the unhappy (Kris Benson).

The Verdict: Roberts, Gibbons and Mora have good years. Patterson and Millar do not. The Mazzone effect benefits Cabrera and Bedard. The team looks mediocre on paper and plays mediocre throughout the season, winning 75 games and holding off the Devild Rays.

5) Tampa Bay Devil Rays

The Good: Carl Crawford looks like a legitimate star and is only getting better. Jorge Cantu might be a on the same track. Rocco Baldelli is back from injury. Scott Kazmir has a year of experience under his belt. Aubrey Huff and Julio Lugo are professional baseball players (which, for the Rays, is a good thing). Delmon Young and BJ Upton are in the organization.

The Bad: Seth McClung, Casey Fossum, Mark Hendrickson and Daug Waechter. That is your rotation after Kazmir. Fossum (who allowed 10 runs in a spring start last week) kept his ERA a hair under 5 last year. The other three can't exactly boast that. The bullpen is horrendous. Their best returning reliever from last year (Chad Orvella) was sent to the minors. Might be the worst pitching in baseball.

The Verdict: The offense actually looks like it could be quite good. Crawford will have another standout year. Both Young and Upton will be in Tampa at some point. Lugo, Huff and Joey Gathright will be shipped elsewhere by the deadline. The pitching will prevent this team from improving and they will struggle to win 70 games.

AL Central

1) Chicago White Sox

The Good: Defending Champions have only improved. Added Jim Thome, who hit 40 HRs in four of the last five seasons. Paul Konerko is an MVP candidate. The rotation is solid from top to bottom which will keep them competitive every night. Javier Vazquez, who has #1 stuff, will be the team's #5 starter. The bullpen is one of the best, provided Bobby Jenks keeps his act in order. Rob Mackowiak is as good a bench player as there is in baseball.Ozzie Guillen is turning into a great manager.

The Bad: Jenks is a big question. It's hard to go from a World Series winning closer to be on the brink of losing your job, but that has happened. Brian Anderson will have to replace Aaron Rowand. Thome needs to prove last year was an abberation. Jose Contrares and Jon Garland were great last year but repeat performances aren't sure things.

The Verdict: It's not a trendy pick, but the White Sox will repeat as champions. The pitching is the best in the majors and pitching wins championships. It doesn't hurt to add a Jim Thome to a World Series team. The southsiders will win 95 games and, after dispatching the Yanks and Sox, will outlast the Mets and become repeat champions.

2) Cleveland Indians

The Good: The team is young, talented and coming off a 93 win season. Grady Sizemore is a stud in centerfield and Travis Hafner is a bigtime slugger. Victor Martinez may be the game's best catcher. Jhonny Peralta, at 23, might be the best player no one talks about. C.C. Sabathia and Cliff Lee both have the potential to win 20 games.

The Bad: There are holes. Aaron Boone, Casey Blake and Ben Broussard all hit around .250 last year. Jason Michaels has yet to prove he is an everyday player. The rotation will miss Kevin Millwood. Paul Byrd is 35, injury prone and nothing special. Jake Westbrook and Jason Johnson are nothing more than inning-eaters. Bob Wickman had a great year last year but at 37, after considering retirement, can he repeat it?

The Verdict: There is no denying the youth and the talent. The Indians will be good again but they aren't yet ready to contend for a championship. They will win more than 85 games but miss out on the playoffs again. Andy Marte will supplant Boone sooner than later. Sizemore has a chance to reach 30-30. The pitching, which is clearly a step behind the White Sox, will ultimately be an achilles heel for the Tribe.

3) Detroit Tigers

The Good: The team has talent and youth, almost in the mold of the Indians. Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillen are back from injury. Chris Shelton and Craig Monroe showed flashes of power last year. Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander are two great pitching prospects. Kenny Rogers is aged but always puts up decent numbers. Jim Leyland has built winners before.

The Bad: Ordonez' injuries may prevent him from ever regaining his form. Ivan Rodriguez is also getting older and slowed down last year. Nate Robertson and Mike Maroth remain in the rotation. Todd Jones, currently on the 15 day DL, needs to prove last year was not a tremendous fluke. The bullpen and the bench also present questions.

The Verdict: The Tigers have some pieces to surprise some people but remain too raw to contend in 2006. They will win 80 games and play best down the stretch. Bonderman is primed to have a breakout year.

Minnesota Twins

The Good: Johan Santana is one of the game's best players with an ERA under 3 and a WHIP under 1. Carlos Silva and Brad Radke give the Twins a great front end of their rotation. Joe Nathan is a top 5 closer and the bullpen, which boasts twelve game winner Jesse Crain, is good. Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are top-tier young players. Torii Hunter is healthy.

The Bad: The offseason additions are . . . interesting. Rondell White is a journeyman veteran that doesn't really fit the team's mold. Luis Castillo's game has declined drastically. Tony Batista played last year in Japan and can't be expected to hit above .240. Prospect Francisco Liriano failed to win a rotation spot and was recently cited with a DUI. Shannon Stewart and Michael Cuddyer are far from All Stars.

The Verdict: The team didn't do much to improve themselves in the offseason. They still will be competitive but will drop another spot in the standings. Batista will prove to be a mistake. Morneau will hit 30 homeruns and will be a star in the future.

5) Kansas City Royals

The Good: The outfield isn't terrible. Emil Brown put up solid numbers last year, David DeJesus has some potential and Reggie Sanders has produced in all 27 of his stops. Mike Sweeney always hits. Scott Elarton is a decent pitcher. The defense will be average. I'm racking my brain but that's all I've got.

The Bad: The pitching is comical. Their best pitcher is AWOL. Their rotation is full of guys with ERAs approaching 6. Their practice of rushing players to the big club has really stunted any possibility that these guys will improve. Mark Teahen, John Buck, Jeremy Affeldt, Runelvys Hernandez, Ambiorix Burgos . . . all these guys should be in the minor leagues. Doug Meintkiewicz, Joe Mays and Mark Grudzielanek aren't going to add many wins.

The Verdict: They will finish right around 60 wins again. It will be tough to watch. DeJesus will become a pretty good leadoff guy. Burgos will struggle being forced into the closer's role, but he can't be much worse than Mike MacDougal. God willing, Mike Sweeney will get to help a contender.

AL West

1) Oakland Athletics

The Good: The pitching is some of the best in the business. Rich Harden has become a legitimate ace. Barry Zito has a Cy Young Award and is still young. Dan Haren has some electric stuff. Joe Blanton turned in a good second half last year. Esteban Loaiza may benefit from pitching in Oakland. All five pitchers won double digit games last year and all could (and should) be better. Huston Street shined as a rookie last year and should also improve. The hitting is full of youth and potential. Former Rookie of the Year Bobby Crosby is healthy and entering his prime. Eric Chavez is as consistent as anyone in the league. Dan Johnson and Nick Swisher have the ability to hit in the vicinity of 30 homeruns.

The Bad: The A's will need all the aforementioned players to play to their potential in order to win the division. They cannot afford someone like Street or Johnson to regress badly. Milton Bradley and Frank Thomas have to be considered gambles and neither had spectacular 2005 campaigns. Jason Alexander his as many major league home runs as Jason Kendall last season.

The Verdict: The A's will be in a dogfight with the Angels all season long. The A's don't have a Vladimir Guerrero but they have the pitching and just enough offense to claim the division. Crosby, Harden, Street and Haren will be All Stars. Frank Thomas won't be a major factor.

2) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The Good: Vladimir Guerrero should be better than his 32-108 totals of a year ago. Chone Figgins is a prototypical leadoff hitter. The Angels have young talent like Casey Kotchman and Dallas McPherson who should be ready to break through. The pitching staff is on par with the league's best. Bartolo Colon is a workhorse ace, while John Lackey and Ervin Santana figure to continue on their success last year. Francisco Rodriguez and the middle relievers form a top-notch 'pen. Mike Scocia gets the best out of this team every year.

The Bad: The offense surrounding Vlad could be better. Garrett Anderson is beginning to slow down. Darin Erstad hit only 7 homeruns last season. Orlando Cabrera's profuction didn't justify his contract. Jeff Mathis will be an untested rookie starter behind the plate replacing Bengie Molina. Jeff Weaver is like a box of chocolates.

The Verdict: The Angels will win a bunch of ballgames, maybe even 90 but they will fall just short of the postseason. Guerrero will be a strong MVP candidate and the starting pitchers will produce. Ervin Santana will be a winner. Anderson and Erstad will struggle to maintain their consistency.

3) Texas Rangers

The Good: Again, the team is comprised of sluggers ready to take advantage of Ameriquest Field. The entire lineup seems to have the potential to hit 20 homeruns. Mark Teixeira, at 25, is the best young hitter in the American League. He may have the ability to reach 50 homeruns in that park. Michael Young and Hank Blalock have turned into perennial all stars. The pop doesn't stop there with Brad Wilkerson, a rejuvenated Phil Nevin and Rod Barajas hitting later in the order. This team may challenge the Yankees for most runs scored. Kevin Millwood won the league ERA title.

The Bad: As usual, the pitching. This team's formula hasn't changed in years and nothing looks different in 2006. Millwood should be decent, but will he be a big improvement over Kenny Rogers? In this park, probably not. Adam Eaton, not great in the first place, is out for a couple months. Vincente Padilla looked shot last year. Kameron Loe is unproven and it only gets worse from there. The bullpen is unspectacular as Francisco Cordero tries to repeat his solid 2005 and Akinori Otsuka moves from a pitching paradise to hitter's heaven.

The Verdict: They will again slug their way to some wins but can't be considered a serious threat to the Angels or Athletics. Teixeira will reach 45-150. Millwood will be out of the top 20 in ERA. The team will win 75 games thanks to ther ability to put double digits on the scoreboard.

4) Seattle Mariners

The Good: Ichiro is good for .300 and 30 stolen bases at the top of the lineup. Richie Sexson is a true power hitter, managing to reach 39 last year playing at Safeco. The defense is among the best in the league. Felix Hernandez, not yet 20, could be the next Pedro Martinez. Jarrod Washburn brings a solid ERA (3.20) from Anaheim.

The Bad: The lineup, outside of Sexson and Ichiro, wouldn't put a scare into most AAA teams. Adrian Beltre looked like a contract year specialist in '05. Carl Everett is old, injury-prone and psychopathic. Kenji Johjima is going to have to adjust to the Major Leagues, particularly the vastness of Safeco field. Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez are too young. Behind Hernandez, the rotation is shaky. Jamie Moyer is 43, Gil Meche has never been better than average and Joel Pineiro spent time in the minors last year.

The Verdict: The M's didn't win 70 games last year and will struggle to do so again this year. They won't put up many runs and their pitching could very well implode. Hernandez will win 15 games and look spectacular at times. Johjima won't come anywhere close to his Japanese numbers. Beltre will be marginally better.


NL East

1) Atlanta Braves

The Good: They have won 14 straight division titles including last year's with largely the same team. Perfect mix of veterans and young players. John Smoltz and Tim Hudson headline a pitching staff without many holes. If closer Chris Rietsma struggles, Joey Devine or Oscar Villarreal will be ready. If Kyle Davies or Jorge Sosa slip up, John Thomson is waitng in the wings. Andruw Jones hit 50 homeruns last year and he is still only 28. Ryan Langerhans, Jeff Francoeur and Adam Laroche showed the ability to hit big league pitching last year. Bobby Cox never loses.

The Bad: Can all these young guys deal with the pressure of the divisional winning streak? This team isn't just expected to make strides, they are expected to win. Edgar Renterria might be 50 years old. The bench is nonexistant. A key injury to someone like Hudson or Jones would cripple them.

The Verdict: The Mets will challenge with their gaudy lineup, but Atlanta's pitching is better. They will win 90 games again and reach the NLCS thanks to a favorable matchup with the Dodgers. Tim Hudson wins a close Cy Young race. The Braves are able to continually retool and look to have a bright future to go along with their winning past.

2) New York Mets

The Good: The lineup seems to be built for the AL East as much as the NL. Jose Reyes isn't a classic leadoff hitter but you can't argue with 60 steals. Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and David Wright form the league's best heart of the order. Delgado is a consistent force while Wright is expected to become a superstar. Pedro Martinez was spectacular in the first year of his contract, taking the ball every five days, winning 15 games and compiling a 2.82 ERA. Billy Wagner brings the legitimate closer they so sorely missed last year. Aaron Heilman and Duaner Sanchez give the team a strong middle relief corps.

The Bad: Pedro, at 33, with a history of arm problems has to be the biggest concern. Will he be able to throw 217 innings for the third straight year? Tom Glavine, despite his strong second half last year, is 40. Steve Trachsel and Victor Zambrano aren't consistent winners. The bottom of the order with a rookie (Anderson Hernandez) and a journeyman (Xavier Nady) could be stronger.

The Verdict: This offense will win many games for the Mets, doing a lot to shade the weaknesses in the rotation. They will miss the Braves by a few games, but will beat them in the NLCS. The team seems built for the postseason format and will lose a classic World Series with the White Sox.

3) Philadelphia Phillies

The Good: The lineup 1-6 is strong. Jimmy Rollins, working on a 36 game hitting streak, is one of the game's premeir 5 tool players. Aaron Rowand brings a solid #2 hitter and a winning attitude. Bobby Abreu is already a star while Chase Utley is about to be one. Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard could each hit 30 HRs. Howard had a monster spring and could even be looking at 40. David Dellucci brings even more power. The team is going to score runs with the best of them.

The Bad: Pitching is a concern. Jon Lieber, Brett Myers and Cory Lidle are all workhorses, but none come close to being a classic stopper. In a division with Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Tim Hudson and Dontrelle Willis, that is a major weak spot. Ryan Franklin lacks talent while Ryan Madson lacks experience. Tom Gordon still has good stuff but hasn't been a closer for five ears.

The Verdict: The Phils will be competitive but their pitching staff will prevent them from reaching the postseason. A .500 record seems attainable. Abreu, Howard and Utley will be All Stars. Rollins' hitting streak will end by next weekend. The team has a nucleus that suggests winning in the near future.

4) Washington Nationals

The Good: Alfonso Soriano agreed to play left field and is a constant 30-30 threat. Third baseman Ryan Zimmerman is one of the best prospects in baseball. Livan Hernandez and John Patterson will win games at the front of the roatation. Chad Cordero is a top 5 closer. The bullpen is solid. The Marlins are in the same division.

The Bad: The lineup lacks punch outside of Soriano. Jose Vidro is aging. Nick Johnson is average. Jose Guillen is hurt. Royce Clayton is the team's starting shortstop. The back end of the rotation will struggle. Pedro Astacio and Ramon Ortiz are low-level journeymen. Felix Rodriguez is somehow on the roster.

The Verdict: The team will finish higher than Florida but not by much. They have alot of shortcomings in a tough division. Even their best player has question marks. They will win less than 70 games and rebuilding is in order.

5) Florida Marlins

The Good: Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis are too of the best young players in the game. Jeremy Hermida and Mike Jacobs might be able to solidly contribute this year.

The Bad: This is a minor league team. The entire lineup has been rushed to the major leagues out of necessity. How fast they will adapt to the big show is anyone's guess. Miguel Olivo would struggle to hit in an intramural softball league. The pitching is a mix of veterans who should be playing at AAA and rookies who should be playing at AA. The bullpen, headed by closer by default Joe Borowski, will struggle to hold any lead these guys get.

The Verdict: They might improve as the season advances but they won't win many games. They will battle all year with the Royals for worst record in baseball. 100 losses seem imminent. Cabrera's numbers will dip slightly, Willis' will dip moderately. Hermida will hit 20 homeruns.

NL Central

1) St. Louis Cardinals

The Good: Add a healthy Scott Rolen to a team that won 100 games last year. Albert Pujols is the game's best hitter and now he has added protection. Juan Encarnacion is candidate to have breakthrough year in winning environment. Chris Carpenter has blossomed into an ace and will anchor the rotation again. Mark Mulder could easily win 20 games. Jason Marquis and Jeff Suppan are solid 3-4 guys. The bullpen is solid. Tony La Russa knows how to put the pieces together.

The Bad: Jim Edmonds may finally be slowing down. He hit only .263 last year and really limped down the stretch. So Taguchi is being counted on to become an offensive threat. Junior Spivey might play every day. Scott Spiezio had to clear the needles out of his house. Sidney Ponson won a rotation spot.

The Verdict: The division is still fairly weak and the Cards are still good enough to win it. They won't win 100 again, more like 95. They won't be able to beat the surging Mets in the NLDS and another good year will end without a title. Albert Pujols is nearly a unanimous MVP. Scott Rolen fails to reach base in the playoffs.

2) Houston Astros

The Good: Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettitte each finished with an ERA under 3. Each could easily win 20 games this year. Brad Lidge is a top-notch closer and the bullpen is the best in the National League. Preston Wilson brings much needed pop to the lineup. He, Jason Lane, Morgan Ensberg and Lance Berkman all should hit between 25 and 30 homeruns. Craig Biggio seemed to defy time with a 26 homerun season last year. Willy Tavarez has the speed to steal 40 bases.

The Bad: Brandon Backe, Wandy Rodriguez, Taylor Buchholz. Not exactly a Roger Clemens in that bunch. The back end of the rotation will struggle to make up for the loss of the Rocket. The team has to be a little concerned with Lidge's finish to last season. Ensberg and Lane will need to repeat their career seasons. Neither Brad Ausmus nor Adam Everett can hit much.

The Verdict: The team should be good, but a little worse than last year with the loss of Clemens. 85 wins is likely, but that won't be enough to beat out the Mets. Biggio and Ensberg see their home run totals shrink by ten. Oswalt doesn't win 20 again, but he does win 18. Lidge leads the league in saves.

3) Chicago Cubs

The Good: Derrek Lee flirted with the triple crown last season. Aramis Ramirez protected Lee well (.302-31-92) and is still only 27. Jacque Jones adds some power, Juan Pierre adds some speed. Matt Murton is ready for the big leagues. Carlos Zambrano has stepped up and been the ace that the Cubs with Mark Prior or Kerry Wood would be. If Prior can get healthy, he could win 15 games. The bullpen will be better with the addition of Scott Eyre.

The Bad: Wood and Prior may never be healthy enough to approach their potential. With them on the shelf, the rotation is weak. Ageless Greg Maddux can't be a #2 starter on a winning team. Sean Marshall and Jerome Williams shouldn't be in anyone's starting rotation. Ryan Dempster needs to prove he is a legitimate closer. Jones and Pierre both had low OBPs last year.

The Verdict: If Prior gets healthy, the team should finish over .500. They don't have the depth to reach the postseason but will be better than some people expect. Matt Murton will win Rookie of the Year and Lee will hit 40 homeruns again. Prior will win 15 games but Kerry Wood will not contribute.

4) Milwaukee Brewers

The Good: Trendy playoff pick with young talent all over the place. Carlos Lee is a solid power threat in the middle of the lineup. Rickie Weeks and J.J. Hardy have another year's experience. Prince Fielder is blue chip prospect ready to contribute.Ben Sheets, if healthy, could be a sleeper Cy Young pick. Doug Davis, Chris Capuano and closer Derrick Turnbow coming off of career seasons.

The Bad: Other than being a year older, didn't do much to improve in the offseason. The team will miss Lyle Overbay in the middle of the lineup. Weeks and Hardy both hit below .250 last year. Corey Koskie did as well. It is hard to believe Capuano and Davis will repeat their 2005 years.

The Verdict: The expectations are way too high. They might win 80 games again but the postseason will have to wait. Capuano and Davis both see their ERAs rise. Sheets pitches well when recovered from injury. Bill Hall supplants Koskie at third base sooner than later.

5) Cincinnati Reds

The Good: The offense, which scored more runs than anyone in the National League last year, is potent. Adam Dunn and a healthy Ken Griffey could both hit 40 bombs. Felipe Lopez established himself as an all star shortstop. Tony Womack and Ryan Freel bring speed to the lineup. Aaron Harang and newly-acquired Bronson Arroyo will provide quality starts.

The Bad: Outside of Harang and Arroyo, the pitching is abominable. Brandon Clausen hasn't come close to expectations, Eric Milton was horrible and Dave Williams is a Pirates castoff. The bullpen is probably worse than the rotation. They don't even pretend to have a closer. The team will miss departed Wily Mo Pena and Joe Randa. They probably won't score as many runs as '05.

The Verdict: They weren't good last year and haven't got much better. They'll win more than 70 and outdo the Pirates but anything more than that is a tremendous stretch. Griffey will wind up on the DL at some point. Arroyo and Harang will be the only pitchers to reach ten wins. The bullpen will kill them.

6) Pittsburgh Pirates

The Good: Jason Bay and Zach Duke represent the future. Bay should improve on his .306-32-101 season. Duke is ready to be the ace that Oliver Perez couldn't be for the Bucs. Perez hopes to pitch more like 2004 than 2005. Paul Maholm has aquality young arm. Mike Gonzalez should be a better than average closer. The bullpen is surprisingly solid. Sean Casey and Joe Randa bring some leadership.

The Bad: Casey and Randa were let go by the Reds. They can't be expected to bring instant winning. The rest of the lineup is filled with young players like Chris Duffy that will take some time. Both Wilsons (Jack, Craig) had poor seasons in '05.The back end of the rotation . . . who knows? Perez's ERA approached 6 last year.

The Verdict: They will be more competitive thanks to Casey and Randa and a full season of development for Zach Duke. They still will win around 70 games and are a long way from the promised land. Duke will experience some growing pains but win 12. Perez's year will fall in between the good of '04 and the bad of '05. Gonzalez finds a way to save 35 games.

NL West

1) Los Angeles Dodgers

The Good: Eric Gagne is back and hopefully will highlight one of the game's best 'pens. Danys Baez, who saved 40 of his own games last year, is a great 8th inning guy, as well as an insurance policy. The rotation doesn't have an ace, but it is deep. All five guys could win double digits. Derek Lowe should be acquitted to the new surroundings by now. The offense will be improved by adding Rafael Furcal to the top of the lineup. Nomar Garciaparra could (could) hit .300 and knock in 100 runs. Jeff Kent always puts up numbers.

The Bad: Grady Little somehow bribed his way into another managerial position. Garciaparra hasn't been himself since 2003. Jose Cruz Jr. is penciled into the opening day lineup. J. D. Drew never seems to be as good as advertised. Brett Tomko lost 15 games last year in the same (weak) division. Gagne's health is a major concern. Did I mention Grady Little was involved?

The Verdict: This team, which won only 71 games last year, is still flawed but it is also still in the NL West. .500 might be good enough to win the division again and L.A.'s pitching will get them there. Garciaparra hits .300 with 20 homeruns and stays relatively healthy. Jae Seo may be the team's best pitcher.

2) San Francisco Giants

The Good: Barry Bonds is the game's most feared hitter. He instantly turns the Giants back into a contender. Randy Winn is a solid 20-20 guy and Moises Alou is decent protection for Big Bad Barry. The rotation will be competitive. Jason Schmidt and Matt Morris are proven winners. Noah Lowry was strong throughout last season. Matt Cain is ready to contribute double digit wins.

The Bad: The lineup is old and, outside of Bonds, didn't get any better in the offseason. Omar Vizquel, Ray Durham and Pedro Feliz can only do so much. Jason Schmidt's ERA has been increasing over the last two years. Matt Morris lost ten games last year with a 100 win club. Armando Benitez is hurt again. Bonds is liable to flip out, get hurt, be suspended or retire at any time.

The Verdict: The young pitchers, Cain and Lowry, will keep the club in the West race until the final days. The rival Dodgers will prove to be slightly better. Bonds will defiantly hit 30 homers but also spend alot of time on the shelf. Schmidt and the bullpen will struggle.

3) Arizona Diamondbacks

The Good: The lineup is stocked with power. Chad Tracy could turn in .300-30-100 numbers at third base. Shawn Green and Luis Gonzalez are consistent. Conor Jackson is a highly touted prospect. Even Tony Clark, who will begin the season on the bench, hit 30 homeruns last year. Brandon Webb is a solid, if unspectacular, young pitcher. Jose Valverde is a closer with a bright future.

The Bad: After Webb, the rotation is pretty anemic. El Duque is at least 41 years old, though he might be 51. Miguel Batista can't seem to find a role in which he can have any semblance of success. Russ Ortiz is an embarassment. Hard to imagine a winning team with that kind of pitching. Eric Byrnes is slated to start in center field after three teams gave up on him last season.

The Verdict: They will try to slug it out with people. In this division, they might even be in the race into September. They will be lucky to reach 77 wins again. Tracy will hit 35 homeruns. Byrnes will hit 3. Ortiz will give up 335.

4) San Diego Padres

The Good: Jake Peavy is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He figures to win nearly 20 games and challenge for the Cy Young. Trevor Hoffman still is one of the best in the game. the bullpen, as a whole, is very good. Mike Cameron will stabilize the top of the order. Brian Giles should increase his power numbers. Bruce Bochy is an excellent skipper.

The Bad: Bochy will need to work a miracle to get this bunch into the playoffs again. Mike Piazza (.250-19-62) will be the cleanup hitter. Ryan Klesko is getting old and ineffective. Ditto for Vinny Castilla. The club is putting alot of stock in Dewon Brazelton, who's ERA was nearly 8 last year. Shawn Estes and Chan Ho Park still have jobs.

The Verdict: Despite Peavy's best efforts, this team will struggle to win 70 games and won't even challenge for the divisional title. Piazza (and Castilla) will be a major bust. The starting pitching will be awful.

5) Colorado Rockies

The Good: Todd Helton is still in Colorado and, even after a down year by his standards, will help the Rockies appear competitive. Clint Barmes is healthy after a fast start to last season. Matt Holliday and Garrett Atkins should improve their power. Brian Fuentes managed to put together an above average season as a closer in Coors' Field last year.

The Bad: The pitching is usually bad and this year won't be any different. Aaron Cook has the best chance of being productive. Jason Jennings has become accustomed to getting hammered in Colorado. Neither of the Kims (Byung-yun and Sun-Woo) are ready to tame Coors. Jose Mesa in Colorado will be entertaining, if nothing else. The Rockies will score some runs but much of their lineup is still full of more potential for 2008 than 2006.

The Verdict: A 4th place finish isn't ridiculous. They will probably get to 70 wins and might leapfrog the Padres. Clint Barmes will turn himself into a fantasy baseball stud with a good year in the thin air. Helton will also have another good year.