10 Thoughts

I've been having some computer troubles and have been busy with other business. Here's ten thoughts to ponder and I'll get back on a more normal posting period.

1) Brett Favre is inconsiderate, overpublicized and overrated. Deep into the free agent period, Favre still hasn't committed to playing for the Green Bay Packers. Partly because their offseason has been spent on Favre Watch, the Packers haven't made use of their cap room. They haven't signed another quarterback, haven't improved their team and seem to be in a state of limbo as far as what direction the franchise is heading. Are they rebuilding? Not with a 36 year old quarterback they aren't. Are they planning on contending? Not if Aaron Rodgers is forced to take over a 4-12 team that has lost their starting center and may trade Javon Walker. The Packers don't have a clue what they are doing and it is because of Favre.

Still, #4 gets the ultimate free pass. You'd think this guy is the greatest quarterback in NFL history. He's not. He hasn't won five Super Bowls. He's won one (thanks, in part, to a kickoff return in which Desmond Howard was aided by the mysterious disappearance of Troy Brown and a blatant holding penalty. Not to mention the Packers were playing a team without a head coach who cared about the game. But thats another story). Last year, Favre was ahead of only the immortal Aaron Brooks in quarterback rating. He threw 29 interceptions (No one else, not even Brooks, threw more than 17). 29 interceptions! He won exactly 4 games, the last a gift win against a Seattle team that didn't try to win the game. Since Super Bowl 32 (9 years ago), he has won exactly 2 playoff games, both home wild card games, one in overtime.

I can't argue that, at his best, Favre wasn't a great quarterback. He's certainly a hall of famer. He's not God, though, and he might just be one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the game right now. Still, the Packers have remained fiercely loyal. The fans have remained loyal. The media has remained intensely loyal, nearly to the point of blatant ignorance. And yet, Favre jerks everyone around by "considering retirement." Soon, he'll likely announce he will return to the Packers. The media will laud one last run for a gunslinger. But the Packers aren't going anywhere soon and they have Brett Favre to blame.

2) The Boston Bruins are lucky Isiah Thomas is running the Knicks because, if he wasn't, they just might be the worst franchise in all of sports. In the past year, they have traded away two of their best four players, one of whom just may end up scoring more points than anyone in the NHL. Their major acquisition in the offseason has scored 1 goal. Their "franchise" goalie, who won the Calder Trophy in 2004, currently plays for the Providence Bruins. Tim Thomas, a career journeyman and minor leaguer, is now the goalie of the near-future. Their coach is the epitome of lame-duck. They might have two NHL-caliber defensemen on the roster. And one of them can't wait to get out of town (so much so that he has begun picking up ridiculous misconduct penalties). With all these things producing disastrous results and the team about to finish another season without a playoff win, the Bruins last weekend did the only thing left to do: they fired the general manager. And just about 5 years late. I don't see how this mess is going to be sorted out but it certainly isn't going to be for quite while.

3) It's Fantasy Baseball season again. Players who will do better than expected:

• Vernon Wells - Protection from Glaus. Entering prime of career. Looking for contract extension.
• Mike Lowell - Averaged 20 HR's in 5 seasons before last. A pull hitter who will benefit greatly from the Green Monster. Eligible at 2B.
• Miguel Cabrera - Clearly team has been mangled but Cabrera is only going to get better and numbers won't dip.
• Jose Reyes - Another guy only getting better on a team that is much better. Can't go wrong with 60 SBs.
• Clint Barmes - If had been healthy all year last year, would have been a Top 50 pick.
• Jim Thome - Allegedly in good shape, if primed for a bounce-back year.
• Justin Morneau - Has to reach potential at some point.
• Derrick Turnbow - Brew Crew will be better Turnbow will benefit.
• Jon Garland - don't understand the skepticism about a 25 year old guy that just won 18 games.
• Chad Orvella - Will settle nicely into a closer's role that got Danys Baez 41 saves last year.

4) And now the guys who will do worse than expected:

• Keith Foulke - A nightmare waiting to happen. Both knees are shot. His head isn't into it. He wasn't very good to begin with. The guy strung one good month together. He's hitting 85 on the radar gun and that won't get big leaguers out. The end is near.
• Johan Santana - Yes, he has nasty stuff but he did struggle at times last year. Many teams in the AL have got much better. The twins haven't. He'll be good, but not as good as expected.
• Pedro Martinez - Shoulder might be nearing its breaking point. Won't pitch 200 innings again
• Johnny Damon - Getting older. Broke down last year. Won't steal as many bases and will struggle to reach .300-10-75 again.
• Todd Jones - Let's not forget one thing: this is still Todd Jones.
• Rich Harden - Only throws one pitch which makes me believe 3.5 is more likely than 2.5.
• Jim Edmonds - 35 years old. Might be heading for .250.
• Bob Abreu - dipped to .260 with only 6 homers after the All Star Break. Might be slowing down a bit.

5) Kansas State instantly became a winner when they hired Bob Huggins. The guy just wins. He might not be the greatest of guys and he might not be able to recite the alphabet at all times, but he will turn the lackluster Wildcats into a national contender. Rumors are already swirling that Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo and Bill Walker are heading to Manhattan with Huggy Bear. That's not just an NCAA tournament quality trio. That's a cutting-down-the-nets trifecta of recruits. It's hard to believe there wasn't a bidding war of immense proportions for this guy because he's ready to turn Kansas State into a powerhouse.

6) It's going to be an all-SEC final on Monday. UCLA has no business being in the Final Four. They are not a Final Four quality team. They were lucky to get by Alabama, had no business getting by Gonzaga and ran into a Memphis team that decided it wanted to play like fifth graders. LSU, while not the greatest of Final Four teams, has enough athleticism and inside presence to get by UCLA as long as they don't clam up and pull a Memphis. Pick: LSU 66, UCLA 56

7) George Mason is not going to wilt under the lights of the Final Four. If that was an issue, they would have been gone long before now. Florida will prove to be too big and too fast. Some of the best basketball I ever saw Syracuse play this year was in the Coaches vs. Cancer against the Gators. Florida still beat the Big East Champs going away. When they are playing at their best, no one in the country (and, certainly no one left) is going to beat them. Mason makes it interesting, but Florida advances. Pick: Florida 74, George Mason 66

8) The Celtics really showed their true colors Sunday in blowing a ten point fourth quarter lead and losing in front of a sold out Garden crowd to the Bulls, who are directly ahead of them in the standings. The Celtics aren't going to be in the playoffs this year and the lottery pick will help them continue to move in the right direction. However, this team easily could have been in the playoffs if the powers that be could have done a slightly better job. Danny Ainge drafted well again but I don't think he could have done worse on the free agent market if he tried. Brian Scalabrine (despite brilliant work on Scal's Blog) is an unmitigated disaster and Dan Dickau was on the way to being the same if not for a season-ending injury. If Ainge had used the money to sign someone like James Jones, the Celtics would certainly be a playoff team. Instead we are stuck with Scalabrine for 4 more years.

Even with the current roster, this team should be in the playoffs. If Doc Rivers knew how to manage a rotation, handle late game situations, diagram plays or analyze talent, this team would be firmly in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Unfortunately, Rivers lacks so many qualities needed to be an NBA coach that the team will go home early. He constantly used 12 man rotations early in the season. He botched at least four game end-of-game situations (WAS, WAS, DET and GS), although I'm certain there are more. He DNPCDed Ryan Gomes until the Wally trade when he discovered that Gomes was, BY FAR, our most competent forward. He still has no clue what the best way to rotate these guys is and pretty much just prays for the best.

The Celtics will be out of the playoffs for the first time since 2001, but it didn't have to be that way.

9) Quick hits: Pittsburgh is lucky they sewed up Jamie Dixon. The guy has done a good job and happens to be the Big East's All-Time winningest coach. . . Jeff Gordon couldn't have appeared less tough than when he climbed out of his car wearing a helmet and shoved Matt Kenseth like a girl . . . I can't for the life of me believe why Ron Everhart left Northeastern for Duquesne. The CAA has so much juice right now with the George Mason story, the Huskies acquitted themselves nicely last year and he still had Shawn James, the country's premeir shotblocker. And he decided to leave that for a job with the downtrodden Dukes, who were 3-24 last year in a less-than-stellar A10. . . I wish ESPN would stop pretending their audience cares about women's basketball. . . Julian Peterson will help the Seahawks tremendously if he stays healthy. Unfortunately, that if is about as big as the space needle. . . The Giants will beat the Colts on September 10th.

10) I will have a baseball preview up in the coming days. If you like baseball, visit The Two Seamer. The guy knows more about baseball than any human being probably should. If you are interested in the Felix Heredias, the Ryan Zimmermans or the Seth McClungs of the world, you'll enjoy it.

Peter May is an Idiot

There should be little to no doubt in the minds of real Celtics fans as to what they want to see in the final 23 games: hard-fought L's.
-Peter May, in today's Boston Globe

If you root for your team to lose, doesn't that inherently mean that you are not a "real fan?" Perhaps May is just trying to stir something up and get his name out there again, but it is hard to fathom this is something that May really believes, no matter how sour he has become with covering the Celtics.

How did May come to this conclusion that "real" fans should root for the Celtics' opposition? Did he ask any real fans? Doesn't appear so. Did he look historically at the difference between teams that had finished in the lottery the previous year vs. a first round exit in the playoffs? Nope.

Instead, in the article he makes two main points: it is a longshot for the Celtics to make the playoffs, down 5 games with another team to leapfrog (Chicago). Not exactly groundbreaking stuff, nor does it further his point at all. Just for good nature, he also includes a couple paragraphs about the tie-breaking scenario between the Bulls and the Celtics, which is newsworthy considering neither is currently in the playoffs. Secondly, he describes how weak the draft is perceived to be this year. He even goes as far as to suggest that LaMarcus Aldridge, who is a sophomore in college, reminds him of Mark Blount. He makes this assertion based on one game. Against Rice. Seriously. This seems to directly refute his entire point, but, hey, he gets a free potshot in at Blount.

I understand that the job of a columnist is to get people talking. I just think that May's point is way off-base and the 700 words he devoted to it did nothing to persuade me otherwise. There aren't that many "real" Celtics fans out there anymore. There aren't many people who are heading to the fleet to pay 60 dollars for tickets to see the Jazz on a Monday night. There aren't many people who stay up until 1 AM watching a Warriors game on a Wednesday night. There aren't many who can take heartbreaking loss after loss and keep coming back for more. There probably aren't many people who read Peter May's column these days. For those of us that do live and breathe Celtics green, those of us "real fans," the last thing we are rooting for is losses.

Everything You Need To Know About Conference Tournaments. . . And then Some

The madness is slowly coming upon us. Today is March 1. The first day of the month dedicated to college basketball from Miami to Spokane. Yesterday saw the first rounds of some of the smaller tournaments across the country. Here's a breakdown of how the 31 automatic qualifiers for the NCAA Tournament will be decided:

ACC
NCAA Locks: Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Boston College
Bubbling: Florida State, Virginia, Miami, Maryland
Outlook: The Dukies haven't lost an ACC game as of yet (only losing to the fifth best Big East team), so they would have to be considered prohibitive favorites. They'll have a considerable home-court presence in Greensboro. BC and UNC are both surging at the right time and won't be an easy out. The bubble teams can't seem to beat anyone right now and shouldn't be considered much of a threat. The Seminoles boast the best resume of the lot.

America East
Favorite: Albany
Dark Horse: Binghamton
Outlook: The Great Danes, a relative newcomer to Division 1, are a strong favorite to host the championship game and go dancing for the first time. Binghamton, the second seed and the institution that gave us Tony Kornheiser, hosts the opening rounds but will have to travel to Albany for a breakfast-time final if Albany holds serve.

Atlantic Sun
Favorite: Belmont
Dark Horse: East Tennessee State
Outlook: Belmont and Lipscomb tied for first place in the conference and split two games during the regular season. The Bruins and Bison, who make their homes just two miles from each other in Nashville, may be on a crash course for a rubber game meeting in the final. The tournament will be played, however, in Johnson City, home of the ETSU Buccaneers. The Bucs still boast "Michael Vick with a basketball," but have to play an extra game in the first round.

Atlantic Ten
Favorite: George Washington
Darkhorse: St. Louis
Outlook: It has pretty much been George Washington and everyone else in a weak A10 this year. For this reason, the Colonials haven't received much as far as national respect. Two years ago, St. Joseph's finished 27-1 in the same conference (minus Charlotte and St. Louis, the second and third best teams this year). They received a #1 seed. This year, GW (24-1) is projected by "Bracketologist" Joe Lunardi, who works for St. Joseph's University, to be no better than a #4 seed. I really don't see the disparity. Despite missing Pops Mensa-Bonsu, GW should earn the automatic bid. The Billikens have been up-and-down all year and would need to pull an upset of major proportions to get into the field. Charlotte, despite having a monster in Curtis Withers, has been spotty also and Massachusetts, playing inspired ball under Travis Ford, is too young to threaten.

Big 12
Locks: Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma
Bubbling: Colorado, Texas A&M
Outlook: Texas just thrashed Kansas and, playing in Dallas, should earn the automatic bid without much trouble. Kansas has had a remarkable season considering how young they are and will want to maintain the momentum as they head into the NCAAs to avoid a letdown like last year. Oklahoma seems to win every game by two points or less, but have done enough to get in and have an experienced team. Colorado and A&M have identical 18-7 (8-6) records. The Buffs have a marquee win over Oklahoma but are stumbling down the stretch. The Aggies have a pillow-like out of conference schedule but have a win over Colorado and have won their last five. There probably will be room for only one.

Big East
Locks: Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, Marquette
Bubbling: Syracuse, Cincinnati, Seton Hall
Outlook: Connecticut has the best talent in the country. They should be the favorite every time they take the floor. Pittsburgh is a team that has enough perimeter and inside scoring to play with Connecticut. Villanova and West Virginia can shoot anyone out of the tournament, including themselves. GTown and Marquette will be gunning to pick up an extra marquee win and improve their seeding. Depending upon the final week of the season, two of the three bubble teams should play each other in the 8/9 game at high noon on Wednesday. There will be no bigger bubble game in the country. The winner should be in, the loser could be out. All three teams would be helped by a win. A team like Louisville, should it qualify, should not be taken lightly.

Big Sky
Favorite: Northern Arizona
Dark Horse: Montana
Outlook: Northern Arizona won the conference and, as a result, gets to host the conference tournament. The Lumberjacks were undefeated at home in league play. They did finish the season with a thirteen-point loss to Montana. The two teams should meet again in the championship game, but expect NAU to dance.

Big South
Favorite: Winthrop
Dark Horse: High Point
Outlook: Winthrop, the defending champions, have everything set up for a return trip to the NCAAs. They looked prepared to cash in with a 41 point win last night in the opening round. The Eagles will host the semifinal game with High Point tomorrow. High Point (location: North Carolina, nickname: Panthers) scored a road upset of Radford last night and is playing their best at the best time. With Winthrop looming, though, last night may prove to be the high point of the season for the Panthers.

Big Ten
Locks: Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan
Bubbling: Indiana
Outlook: Home teams seem to always win in the Big Ten. By that logic, Indiana should take itself off the bubble by claiming the automatic bid. Considering, their coach has already quit and they lost to Indiana State, that has to be considered a long shot. The field is really wide open. All of the top five teams can defeat each other on any given night. Michigan State has the talent, experience and coaching to snap out of their funk and get the job done. Ohio State can get hot and beat anyone in the country. Those two teams seem to have the best shot at reaching the final and having their NCAA seeding completely compromised because the game is just minutes before the selection show.

Big West
Favorite: Pacific
Dark Horse: UC Irvine
Outlook:Pacific always seems to make the field of 64 and, lately, have been making the field of 32. They should do at least the former this year in the weakened Big West. UC Irvine beat Pacific at home and has ten conference wins and a cute nickname (Anteaters). The rest of the conference is terrible.

Colonial
Locks: George Mason
Bubbling: UNC Wilmington, Hofstra
Outlook:George Mason will get an at-large bid regardless of whether they win the tournament or not. They may need it, as the top of the conference is very competitive. Wilmington, like Mason, finished at 15-3 in the conference and could dance without an automatic invite. Hofstra is squarely on the bubble at 14-4 after just defeating George Mason Saturday. Old Dominion was a #12 seed last year and shouldn't be taken lightly. Virginia Commonwealth gets to play at home. Northeastern acquitted itself well in its first year in the conference, a major step up from the America East. This tournament has a lot of quality teams playing for their lives which should make for good basketball.

Conference USA

Locks: Memphis
Bubbling: UAB, UTEP, Houston
Outlook: Memphis is by far the most talented team in the league. Memphis is hosting the tournament. After what happened last year, its hard to believe Memphis doesn't win the CUSA tournament this year. That doesn't mean this tournament is meaningless, however. The committee usually takes more than one team from this conference and this year probably will be no different. The question is who will join the Tigers on Selection Sunday. If UAB beats Memphis tomorrow, they will secure a bid. If not, whoever makes the tournament championship will be a heavy favorite to get a second bid.

Horizon
Favorite: Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Darkhorse: Detroit
Outlook: Milwaukee lost Bruce Pearl and Ed McCants but didn't lose a beat in the Horizon League. The Panthers earned the double bye and will host the semifinals and possible final. Butler also earned the valuable double bye, while everyone else left in the tournament is 8-8. Of those middling teams, Detroit has the best chance to pull an upset because of their outside shooting and athleticism.

MAAC
Favorite: Iona
Darkhorse: Siena
Outlook: Manhattan won the regular season and earned the free pass to the semifinals. The Jaspers haven't been the same since they lost C.J. Anderson, their best player, because of academic problems. Iona will have to play an extra game, but has the talent to take down Manhattan in the final game. Siena, playing at home, has a chance to preempt the Gaels by beating the Jaspers in the second round. St. Peter's star Keydren Clark, the NCAA's 8th all-time leading scorer, barring an NIT bid, will be playing his last collegiate game in Albany.

MAC
Favorite: Kent State
Darkhorse: Miami (Ohio)
Outlook: The Golden Flashes have won six in a row and have been the class of the conference at 15-2. Their list of challengers is not a short one, however. Akron has been a surprise at 13-3 and hosts Kent on Saturday. Miami of Ohio have won seven straight after a sluggish start. Preseason pick Ohio has been a disappointment, as has Buffalo. Kent State should win, but both Akron and Miami will give them all they can handle.

MEAC
Favorite: Delaware State
Darkhorse: Bethune-Cookman
Outlook: Delaware State won at the aforementioned Kent State and won at Jacksonville State and is 15-2 in conference. They'll have to travel to Raleigh for the tournament but will enter as favorites. No one else in this low-level conference can match Delaware State's profile, but Cookman did just nip the Hornets at home and is second in the conference. Whoever wins will end up with a #16 seed.

Mid Continent
Favorite: Oral Roberts
Darkhorse: IUPUI
Outlook: Oral Roberts is the class of the MidCon with a solid out of conference profile and the number one seed. They will also play the tournament in Tulsa, their hometown. IUPUI (location: Indianapolis, nickname: Jaguars) tied Roberts at 13-3, but fell apart in the last week of the season, losing their last two to drop to the #2 seed.

Missouri Valley
Locks: Witchita State
Bubbling: Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, Creighton, Bradley
Outlook: A mess. Witchita State won the regular season, which means the Shockers should be in. Missouri State and Northern Iowa face each other in the quarterfinals Friday. The winner is in great shape to get a bid. The loser will have to sweat. Creighton and Bradley do the same. A win will likely get Creighton in, despite missing their best player Nate Funk. Bradley may need to do even more work. The Salukis, who have some bad losses on their profile, need to avoid another letdown in the quarters. Ultimately, no more than four teams are likely to get in and it could end up being the four teams that make it tow the semifinals of this tournament.

Mountain West
Locks: None
Bubbling: San Diego State, Air Force
Outlook: Both the Aztecs and Falcons are right on the bubble for an at-large bid. Both of them would be best-served to win out in Denver or at least get to the final game to really feel safe. BYU has defeated both teams and may have as good a chance to get the automatic bid as anyone. Utah lurks as a sleeper.

Northeast
Favorite: Fairleigh Dickinson
Darkhorse: Central Connecticut State
Outlook: Fairleigh Dickinson is the defending champion and the #1 seed, meening they will host every game they play. CCSt. beat the Knights in their only regular season meeting and finished only one game behind them. If Central Connecticut State claimed the berth, they should end up with a #16 seed and could set up an all Blue Devils matchup with Duke.

Ohio Valley
Favorite: Murray State
Sleeper: Tennessee Tech
Outlook: Murray State "raced" through the conference to the tune of 17-3. After a quarterfinal win, two more will get the Racers to the Dance, where they could be a very dangerous team. Tennessee Tech played Murray tough twice, including a win in their building. They get to play the Racers in Tennessee if they are able to upend Samford and get to the championship.

Pac 10
Locks: UCLA, Washington, Arizona, Cal
Bubbling: none
Outlook: UCLA paces the conference by a game right now, but there is no clear favorite for the tournament at Staples Center. The NCAA tournament teams all have the talent to put together three wins and get the automatic bid. Cal and Arizona have solid NCAA profiles, but do not want to slip up and take a bad loss before they hit the committee. Stanford knows it needs to win the thing to punch a ticket.

Patriot
Favorite: Bucknell
Darkhorse: Holy Cross
Outlook: Bucknell is rolling towards another NCAA bid and will host all their games in the Patriot League Tournament. Even if they fell victim to a huge upset here, they still should warrant a bid. Thus, all the bubble teams are praying that the Crusaders, who host their half of the bracket up until the final, don't believe in miracles.

SEC
Locks: LSU, Tennessee, Florida, Alabama, Arkansas
Bubble: Kentucky
Outlook: All six teams should end up in but the Wildcats need to grab another win or two to ensure that their disappointing season won't end in the NIT. Tennessee gets to play at home which may make them the favorite here. All these teams will be playing to improve their seeding and anyone could make a run to the championship.

Southern
Favorite: Georgia Southern
Darkhorse: Davidson
Outlook: Georgia Southern has the top seed in the SoCon, which is very tough to predict. Davidson is the perennial winner but had a somewhat disappointing season and has the #3 seed. A case could be made for a handful of teams, but at 20-8 (11-4), Georgia Southern has the best chance to earn the #16 seed.

Southland
Favorite: Northwestern State
Darkhorse: Sam Houston State
Outlook: Northwestern State put the country on notice early with wins over BCS teams like Mississippi State, Oregon State and Oklahoma State. They didn't let down in the Southland Conference ransacking the conference at 13-1. Sam Houston State is the only conference foe to beat the Demons, but that was at home two months ago. Hard to believe someone is knocking off NW State before the NCAAs.

Sun Belt
Favorite: Western Kentucky
Darkhorse: Middle Tennessee State
Outlook: Western Kentucky is the favorite, but there should be some competition. The Hilltoppers and Southern Alabama won each of the two divisions in the wide-ranging conference. The tournament, however is going to be played in Middle Tennessee's building, where they just knocked off the Hilltoppers. They are going to be a tough out at home. Louisiana-Lafayette has been surging and Denver has the best player in the conference (Yemi Nicholson). Both those teams also have byes. Western Kentucky should prevail but it won't be easy.

SWAC
Favorite: Southern
Darkhorse: Grambling
Outlook: The big football rivalry could take to the basketball floor next week. Southern won the conference by three games, but did drop one to Grambling. Even if Southern gets it done, they are most likely headed for a Tuesday night affair in beautiful Dayton.

WAC
Favorite: Nevada
Darkhorse: Louisiana Tech
Outlook: Nevada won the regular season and gets to host the tournament. They are a good bet for an at-large this year, but they still will want to take care of business at home. As much hype as Nick Fazekas got before the season, the Wolfpack are beatable even at home because they can't shoot. The two most likely spoilers would be Utah State and Louisiana Tech. Utah State just got crushed by Nevada at home, but they have defeated Nevada on their court earlier in the year. La Tech just recently came within a tipped basket of doing the same. New Mexico State has been a major surprise and could spoil someone's tournament.

WCC
Locks: Gonzaga
Bubbling: none
Outlook: The Zags have had some scares but haven't lost in conference. The trend will likely continue in the WCC tournament, which will be played in their building. St. Mary's and San Francisco loom as the most likely longshots, but don't count on it. Unless the WCC really wants two bids, Gonzaga should roll.