6 Thoughts on 06/06/06

1) I hope that all the hosts and callers of WEEI are on record with their hasty conclusions on the Bronson Arroyo-Wily Mo Pena deal. Admittedly, ther 'Nati has had the better end of the deal over the past two months. Bronson Arroyo is off to a hot start in the national league and, now, Wily Mo is on the disabled list and David Pauley is the team's fifth starter. In vintage sports radio form, the trade has already been labeled a "mistake", a "failure" and a "joke." Ultimately, they may be right. Bronson Arroyo might turn into an all star pitcher and Wily Mo may never develop into anything more than a platoon outfielder. But let's look at the two and see if this deal really can be considered "one of the worst in baseball history":

Pena - The most glaring number on Wily Mo's baseball card is 24. That's his age. He turned 24 in January. He is over a year younger than Jonathan Papelbon, over two year's younger than NL Rookie of the Year Ryan Howard. Most players under 25 are considered prospects and haver potential. Why is Pena any different? It seems as though people wanted him to be a 40 HR guy right away and those kind of expectations are simply too high. David Ortiz was a rookie at 24 and managed ten homeruns. Derrek Lee had his first good season at 24. Carlos Delgado did, also. Will Pena be the next David Ortiz? Probably not. But I'm not giving up on him yet, especially with Trot Nixon's contract running out this year.

Arroyo - 29 years old. Career .500 pitcher entering this year. Though he usually provides quality starts, career ERA is 4.50. Undoubtedly, he was a great guy and wanted desperately to play in Boston. He is off to a great start, but doing so in the National League. With his stuff, it is hard to believe he'll ever become anything more than a better-than-average pitcher.

Bronson is going to have the better year this year. He might have the better year next year. But he is five years older than a guy who has proven he can hit for power in the major leagues. In two years, when Pena is heading towards a .280-35-120 season, everyone on WEEI will claim that they always believed in the trade. I believe in the trade now.

2) The NBA finals are going to be enjoyable and difficult to predict. I can't imagine not enjoying the NBA finals, but even "casual viewers" should enjoy Shaq/Wade/Pat Riley vs. Dirk/Cubes. Story lines abound and the basketball should be entertaining also. I am rooting for Miami (the Walker factor), but I will take Dallas in 7. The determining factor is going to be the two-headed Dampier/Diop monster. O'Neal is motivated to get another ring. The Mavs won't be able to stop him, but they (particulary Diop) did a sufficient job of containing Duncan and they will need to do it again in this series. Nowitzki on the other hand simply can't be contained. I'm convinced that he is the best player in the NBA. He is a particularly bad matchup for the Heat. Udonis Haslem is nowhere near quick enough. Antoine Walker would get torched. James Posey is probably the guy but he is only 6-8 and has been playing about 25 minuts per game. O'Neal and Wade will keep every game close but Nowitzki will be too much, especially with games 6 and 7 in Dallas.

3) Antoine Walker is still, far and away, my favorite NBA player, but his game has devolved to historic proportions. This is a guy who averaged 17 and 9 as a rookie. This is a guy who was an all-star in his second year. He's been to three mid-season classics. He's averaged 20 points or more 6 times. He was on the cover of NBA Live '99. Before this year, he averaged almost nine rebounds a game for his career. He lead his college to a national title.

Now, who is Antoine Walker? He's a three point specialist who isn't even very good at shooting 3's. He averaged 12 points and 5 rebounds. He is a role player. Almost fifty percent of his shots are threes. He has no back-to-the basket game to speak of. He can't shoot free throws. He doesn't rebound. Most people attribute this to the fact that he is playing with Shaq and DWade. This is bogus. Just because you are playing with good players doesn't mean you're game has to get worse. Watching Walker, you would think that he i a 38 year old gunner giving it one last shot. He's 29. He should be in the prime of his career. Third option or not, he should not be an afterthought. He should still be able to take games over. Employee #8 has been a good soldier in Miami, but it is hard to believe he used to be a great basketball player.

4) NBADraft.net has the Celtics taking Villanova's Randy Foye with the #7 overall pick. That is exactly who I hope they end up with. Foye isn't a perfect prospect. He might not be an NBA all-star, but he is the most polished player and could help the Celtics next year. Foye can shoot, can make his own shot and is an adequate defender. The Celtics don't need another project (Bargnani), another raw big man (Aldridge) or an average point guard that may or may not beat out Orien Greene next year (Williams). Assuming Adam Morrison and Tyrus Thomas are long gone, that will leave the Celtics with Foye, Rodney Carney, Brandon Roy or Rudy Gay. They all have question marks: Carney's jump shot, Roy's athleticism and Gay's experience. Foye lacks size, but if he could convert himself into a point guard, that would be all the better.

5) The Jonathan Sullivan for Bethel Johnson trade is essentially a bust-for-bust swap. It is seemingly impossible to try to figure who got the better end of such a deal. Sullivan had enough talent to be a top 10 pick. If Belichick and co. can't get anything out of him, he doesn't have anything. People have been saying Sullivan can't keep himself in shape and lacks motivation. If he doesn't change that, he'll be gone in August. Just ask David Terrell. Bethel Johnson didn't come into the league with as much acclaim, but his speed made Patriots fans envision a guy who could dramatically help the offense. It never happened. For a myriad of reasons (injuries, work ethic, unable to grasp offense), Bethel didn't play much over the last three years. He was a productive kick returner and made some big catches, but spent too much time on the pine. It's actually sort of shocking that he hung on this long. Coach Bill doesn't waste space on the 53. You can't teach speed, however, and that Johnson still has. With all his problems, it's surprising the Pats were able to pick up a player even of Sullivan's quality. Although, the Saints may be thinking exactly the opposite. Only time will tell if either player makes any sort of impact.

6) After watching Game 1 of the Stanley Cup finals tonight on the OLNVS Channel 65 network (a welcome retrieve from the Sox debacle), it made me even more upset at the sorry state of Boston's NHL team. The Bruins had (another) chance to start over in a positive way this offseason. They had a chance to hire a new GM, a new coach, get some new blood into the morose organization. Any signs of life would have appeased Bruins nation, even if just a little. Instead, they found a way to bungle everything. First, they have allowed coach Mike Sullivan to remain a lame duck coach for far too long. The guy didn't get the job done. It's time for a change. Why let it fester? Then, media and fans were lead to believe that the B's had found their GM: Ray Shero. The deal was done. And then, as always, money came into play. Within days, Shero was out of the running. A scroll down the list of candidates lead to Peter Chiarelli. Again, the Bruins botched the deal. They actually managed to get Chiarelli in the fold. Well, sort of. In order to get him, they had to part ways with a high draft pick, something very rare for a move like this in professional sports. Despite this, Chiarelli still works for the Senators. He doesn't work for the Bruins yet. With the draft and free agency around the corner, the Bruins now have no GM. The man in charge (Harry Sinden) has most likely reached the point of senilus maximus. He can't even put sentences together. I wish I could say that these problems are something new, but they are more the norm. The Carolina Hurricanes can become a great franchise, but an original six team in a great hockey city is good for nothing more than a few laughs.

All right, that's it for now. In the very near future, I will have a World Cup preview up and continue with the 100 greatest games feature.