Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Mock Draft Time

1) Toronto Raptors - Andrea Bargnani, Italy
The Raptors will occasionally make a good draft pick (McGrady, even Villanueva) but often times they botch them (Araujo, Kareem Rush, Michael Bradley). This year, they are in a tough spot: #1 pick in a crappy draft. No player stands out as the must-have guy so the Raptors are going to have to make a tough decision. They'd love to trade the pick, but I doubt they'll find buyers. In the end, they will probably be overcome by the "next Dirk" statements and take Bargnani. I don't want to brutally insult a player that I have never seen play, but this pick could be more Tskitishvilli than Nowitzki.

2) Chicago Bulls - Adam Morrison, Gonzaga
Now, if the Knicks were here, I'm sure Isiaih would take the best available shoot-first swingman (most likely Gay). The Bulls, hopefully, will be more shrewd. They need some more scoring punch and Morrison could be the perfect fit. He'll never be Larry Bird. The people who make those comparisons are probably the same ones who say that "nothing has been proven about Barry Bonds" or "Dwyane Wade might be better than Michael Jordan." This garbage all pretty much pervades from the eleventh largest city in Connecticut and it is tiring. Morrison will be a solid NBA player but never a basketball God. This would be a good pick for Chicago.

3) Charlotte Bobcats - Rudy Gay, UConn

Gay isn't ready to be an NBA player. If guys like the Cornett(e) brothers, Demetris Nichols and the University of Albany's men's basketball team can contain you fairly well, you aren't bound to be Rookie of the Year. The Bobcats, however, aren't exactly looking for an instant contributor and will be able to have some patience with Gay. Gay could be a star. He's got the game and the athleticism for it. He was unstoppable at times in college. But the NBA is a different game and he will need to develop, but he could turn out to be the best player from this draft.

4) Portland Trailblazers - Tyrus Thomas, LSU

Here are the qualities that the Blazers always look for in draft candidates: youth, rawness, risk, untapped upside and usually character problems. Martell Webster, Telfair, Travis Outlaw, Qyntel Woods, Zach Randolph, Erick Barkley. All of them have the same characteristics. If you look at a list of their draft picks since 2001, only one player, 1st or 2nd round, attended college. Bet you can't guess who. Linas Klieza. And he never played a game for Portland. The no high-schoolers rule must have sent the Blazers' front office into a state of shock. They'll go for the best available thing and take Thomas. When people say that your absolute ceiling is Stro Swift, you probably shouldn't be the fourth overall pick, but that's the 2006 draft for you.

5) Atlanta Hawks - LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas

The Hawks need a point guard so badly that they should take Marcus Williams here. The fact that Tyronn Lue isn't playing pro ball in Bulgaria right now is astonishing. Despite this being so obvious, I just don't believe that they will pass up the potentially good post player (Marvin Williams) for the solid point guard (Chris Paul) that they need in the worst way. As for Aldridge, I'm not believer. In today's NBA, outside of Tim Duncan and Shaq, post players are nearly nonexistant unless you are dominant. LaMarcus scored 4 points on 2-14 shooting in the biggest game of his life. I don't think that will translate into dominant.

6) Minnesota Timberwolves - Brandon Roy, Washington

This is nearly a lock. The Wolves need immediate scoring help and Roy will provide it. They will have to consider point guard, but Marcus Banks just might be as good an option as Marcus Williams. The old draft addage says when in doubt, take the best player. Roy is the best player available .

7) Boston Celtics - Randy Foye, Villanova

What an exciting night it figures to be for Celtics fans. Even if the Allen Iverson rumors are just that, the C's are major players tonight. I'd love to see what Iverson could do with a wing player like Pierce. Would I trade our pick, Gerald Green, Big Al and Wally for him? That might be a bit much. I'd be hesitant to ship both Al and Green off in a deal for just one player. But, if Ainge can pull off a good deal for a player like Iverson, the Celtics would get some real buzz around these parts, which would be exciting. Another potential deal is trading the pick to Portland for Sebastian Telfair. I would prefer that to just drafting Marcus Williams and if the C's could get a late first from Portland, all the better. More often than not, though, trade talks never turn into anything and Randy Foye would also be a solid option. I've been supporting Foye's merits for months. I think he's got the most complete game right now of anyone in the draft. He is a guy who could contribute immediately next year and that is what the Celtics need. He'll have to work on his distributing, but the rest of his offensive game should translate well. If the Celtics end the night with a high-scoring guard from the city of Philadelphia, I will be happy.

8) Houston Rockets - Rodney Carney, Memphis

The Rockets would prefer one of the oyes, but will have to settle for the next best thing. Carney does have the best NBA athleticism of the three and can knock down a jump shot. He could have a solid rookie year playing alongside a healthy Tracy McGrady.

9) Golden St. Warriors - Shelden Williams, Duke

The Hawks may or may not have a promise in to Williams. But, assuming, they bypass him, he won't fall very far. The Warriors are stocked around the perimeter, but when Adonal Foyle is your best big man, a guy like Williams can't hurt. It is hard to envision Williams turning into a star, but his rebounding ability and post game make him a good value pick.

10) Seattle Supersonics - Cedric Simmons

The Sonics need frontline help and Simmons is the best prospect available.

Who Will Be Steals later in the draft?
If Marcus Williams falls, as many expect him to, he'll be a steal because he is a true point guard. You can teach weight training and conditioning, but you can't turn a true 2 into a good 1.

Same goes for Kyle Lowry. Although, he should have stayed in school.

Maurice Ager is a do-everything player who should be able to play in the NBA.

Quincy Douby, especially if in the right system, could be a poor man's Allen Iverson.

Steve Novak is 6-9 and can shoot. For Mike Dunleavy, that meant #3 overall. Novak could be a second round steal.

Allen Ray could be a good role player. Leon Powe could develop into something special.

Who Will Be Busts?

Rajon Rondo never impressed me while in college. How can you play point guard in the NBA if your team is so bad in college?

Josh Boone has no offensive game whatsoever. That doesn't work in the big leagues.

Ronnie Brewer will never be a superstar, especially in a league where defense has become obsolete.

Will Blaylock, Darius Washington, Guillermo Diaz, and Renaldo Balkman are underclassmen who could be headed for the NBDL.

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