NBA Draft Redux

- I hope the Celtics have something more coming in the next few days, because right now it's impossible to see the worth of what Ainge did last night. The Telfair deal I could live with. I looked at it as Ainge saying that he thought Telfair was a better PG prospect than anyone else in the draft pool. Plus, we save a little money, pick up Ratliff, not horrible. Then, however, he not only trades away a future first rounder, but takes on Brian Grant's contract to obtain the services of Kentucky underachiever Rajon Rondo. Unless someone like Philadelphia wanted Rondo and this is the first step in a major deal, it just doesn't make any sense. Rondo does not have the offensive skill set to contribute in the NBA right now. To call last year's Kentucky team mediocre would be generous. If Rondo had played at somewhere like Washington State, we would have never heard of him. But, because he was at a "powerhouse" like UK, he is a first round pick. It baffles me.

-I also don't buy this whole "He was the best player at workouts. They would have taken him seventh" mentality. If they had loved this guy so much, they wouldn't have made the Telfair deal in the first place. As far as the workouts, how does two hours of playing two-on-two with the likes of Will Blalock and Louis Hinnant overshadow two mediocre seasons full of basketball. When your career highlight is a last minute shot to beat 20-point underdog Central Florida at home, it's hard for me to say that you are headed for NBA superstardom.

-For all the grief Renaldo Balkman has received (all of it deserving), with his team's season on the line against Kentucky in the SEC tournament, he helped the Gamecocks pull out a 65-61 win. Rajon Rondo finished with six points. Balkman would ultimately carry South Carolina to an NIT title, while Rondo and co. were given a dubious dance ticket and bounced in the second round. If Balkman is such a laughable pick, how is Rondo not held in the same regard?

-One final Celtics note. Orien Greene is probably going to be released within hours. Not a great player by any means, but for a late second rounder, he overachieved. He hit some big shots and handled the offense sufficiently. He will be a solid backup point guard for someone down the road.

-I expected it, but I was still disappointed not to see Gerry McNamara's name called. The new NBA fad is drafting obscure foriegn players in the second round and hoping they develop overseas. I can't think of an instance where it worked out that way, but still everyone does it. What's more frustrating though is the midlevel college players that teams took in the second round. James Augustine? Denham Brown? David Noel? DJ Pinnock! Blalock? I don't think any of those guys are on-par with what Gerry did in his career. Then again, they probably looked like stars at the light shootarounds they attended.

- Memphis' acquisitions of Rudy Gay, Stro Swift and Alexander Johnson don't really speak loudly of the NBA future of Hakim Warrick. I hope Hakim gets a fair shot to develop, but the competition just got a lot harder.

- There are few analysts of any sports on any network better than Jay Bilas. He doesn't scream or make ridiculous statements. He just tells you what he believes and that's what I want in an analyst. He also was robbed of an Academy Award for his work in Dark Angel, which is a plus.

- 5 Winners:

• Jazz - Three players who could contribute next year.
• Sixers - Good value on Carney, who could start for this team next year.
• Hornets - They still need a scorer, but they needed size and they got it.
• Timberwolves - Randy Foye is still my pick for Rookie of the Year.
• Grizzlies - Gay could be a star, Lowry could be a great point guard. The most potential of any team.

-5 losers

• Knicks - Surprised?
• Clippers - Paul Davis and Guillermo Diaz. If you were building an all-underachiever team, you'd probably start there.
• Suns - Chose not to participate.
• Wizards - Fran Fraschilla loved their picks.
• Sonics - Wow.

Mock Draft Time

1) Toronto Raptors - Andrea Bargnani, Italy
The Raptors will occasionally make a good draft pick (McGrady, even Villanueva) but often times they botch them (Araujo, Kareem Rush, Michael Bradley). This year, they are in a tough spot: #1 pick in a crappy draft. No player stands out as the must-have guy so the Raptors are going to have to make a tough decision. They'd love to trade the pick, but I doubt they'll find buyers. In the end, they will probably be overcome by the "next Dirk" statements and take Bargnani. I don't want to brutally insult a player that I have never seen play, but this pick could be more Tskitishvilli than Nowitzki.

2) Chicago Bulls - Adam Morrison, Gonzaga
Now, if the Knicks were here, I'm sure Isiaih would take the best available shoot-first swingman (most likely Gay). The Bulls, hopefully, will be more shrewd. They need some more scoring punch and Morrison could be the perfect fit. He'll never be Larry Bird. The people who make those comparisons are probably the same ones who say that "nothing has been proven about Barry Bonds" or "Dwyane Wade might be better than Michael Jordan." This garbage all pretty much pervades from the eleventh largest city in Connecticut and it is tiring. Morrison will be a solid NBA player but never a basketball God. This would be a good pick for Chicago.

3) Charlotte Bobcats - Rudy Gay, UConn

Gay isn't ready to be an NBA player. If guys like the Cornett(e) brothers, Demetris Nichols and the University of Albany's men's basketball team can contain you fairly well, you aren't bound to be Rookie of the Year. The Bobcats, however, aren't exactly looking for an instant contributor and will be able to have some patience with Gay. Gay could be a star. He's got the game and the athleticism for it. He was unstoppable at times in college. But the NBA is a different game and he will need to develop, but he could turn out to be the best player from this draft.

4) Portland Trailblazers - Tyrus Thomas, LSU

Here are the qualities that the Blazers always look for in draft candidates: youth, rawness, risk, untapped upside and usually character problems. Martell Webster, Telfair, Travis Outlaw, Qyntel Woods, Zach Randolph, Erick Barkley. All of them have the same characteristics. If you look at a list of their draft picks since 2001, only one player, 1st or 2nd round, attended college. Bet you can't guess who. Linas Klieza. And he never played a game for Portland. The no high-schoolers rule must have sent the Blazers' front office into a state of shock. They'll go for the best available thing and take Thomas. When people say that your absolute ceiling is Stro Swift, you probably shouldn't be the fourth overall pick, but that's the 2006 draft for you.

5) Atlanta Hawks - LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas

The Hawks need a point guard so badly that they should take Marcus Williams here. The fact that Tyronn Lue isn't playing pro ball in Bulgaria right now is astonishing. Despite this being so obvious, I just don't believe that they will pass up the potentially good post player (Marvin Williams) for the solid point guard (Chris Paul) that they need in the worst way. As for Aldridge, I'm not believer. In today's NBA, outside of Tim Duncan and Shaq, post players are nearly nonexistant unless you are dominant. LaMarcus scored 4 points on 2-14 shooting in the biggest game of his life. I don't think that will translate into dominant.

6) Minnesota Timberwolves - Brandon Roy, Washington

This is nearly a lock. The Wolves need immediate scoring help and Roy will provide it. They will have to consider point guard, but Marcus Banks just might be as good an option as Marcus Williams. The old draft addage says when in doubt, take the best player. Roy is the best player available .

7) Boston Celtics - Randy Foye, Villanova

What an exciting night it figures to be for Celtics fans. Even if the Allen Iverson rumors are just that, the C's are major players tonight. I'd love to see what Iverson could do with a wing player like Pierce. Would I trade our pick, Gerald Green, Big Al and Wally for him? That might be a bit much. I'd be hesitant to ship both Al and Green off in a deal for just one player. But, if Ainge can pull off a good deal for a player like Iverson, the Celtics would get some real buzz around these parts, which would be exciting. Another potential deal is trading the pick to Portland for Sebastian Telfair. I would prefer that to just drafting Marcus Williams and if the C's could get a late first from Portland, all the better. More often than not, though, trade talks never turn into anything and Randy Foye would also be a solid option. I've been supporting Foye's merits for months. I think he's got the most complete game right now of anyone in the draft. He is a guy who could contribute immediately next year and that is what the Celtics need. He'll have to work on his distributing, but the rest of his offensive game should translate well. If the Celtics end the night with a high-scoring guard from the city of Philadelphia, I will be happy.

8) Houston Rockets - Rodney Carney, Memphis

The Rockets would prefer one of the oyes, but will have to settle for the next best thing. Carney does have the best NBA athleticism of the three and can knock down a jump shot. He could have a solid rookie year playing alongside a healthy Tracy McGrady.

9) Golden St. Warriors - Shelden Williams, Duke

The Hawks may or may not have a promise in to Williams. But, assuming, they bypass him, he won't fall very far. The Warriors are stocked around the perimeter, but when Adonal Foyle is your best big man, a guy like Williams can't hurt. It is hard to envision Williams turning into a star, but his rebounding ability and post game make him a good value pick.

10) Seattle Supersonics - Cedric Simmons

The Sonics need frontline help and Simmons is the best prospect available.

Who Will Be Steals later in the draft?
If Marcus Williams falls, as many expect him to, he'll be a steal because he is a true point guard. You can teach weight training and conditioning, but you can't turn a true 2 into a good 1.

Same goes for Kyle Lowry. Although, he should have stayed in school.

Maurice Ager is a do-everything player who should be able to play in the NBA.

Quincy Douby, especially if in the right system, could be a poor man's Allen Iverson.

Steve Novak is 6-9 and can shoot. For Mike Dunleavy, that meant #3 overall. Novak could be a second round steal.

Allen Ray could be a good role player. Leon Powe could develop into something special.

Who Will Be Busts?

Rajon Rondo never impressed me while in college. How can you play point guard in the NBA if your team is so bad in college?

Josh Boone has no offensive game whatsoever. That doesn't work in the big leagues.

Ronnie Brewer will never be a superstar, especially in a league where defense has become obsolete.

Will Blaylock, Darius Washington, Guillermo Diaz, and Renaldo Balkman are underclassmen who could be headed for the NBDL.

Things That Make You Wonder. . .

- I wonder where Gary Payton found his jump shot. He hasn't had one in about five years. He certainly didn't have one last year. I wish he could have found the fountain of youth or his miracle chiropractor one year earlier.

- I wonder if referring to Kasey Keller as "the best goalkeeper in the world" is akin to saying that somebody like Fernando Tatis is the best third baseman in baseball. The guy plays for a second-teir team in a second-teir league. In any other sport, that is a journeyman. In soccer, that's the best goalie in the world.

- I wonder just how hard David Wells is rehabbing.

- I wonder why Sergei Samsanov never developed into anything more than a servicable second string player.

- I wonder how J.J. Redick is going to feel fighting to make a roster after being selected in the second round.

- I wonder if Danny Ainge will still take the best available white player.

- I wonder how long it is going to take the Patriots to see that without D. Branch, the team's number one wideout is Reche Caldwell.

- I wonder how the Red Sox are on the verge of being swept by the Twins, who have arguably baseball's worst lineup.

- I wonder why the NBA needs to have 3 days in between two games in the same city.

- I wonder if Perry Patterson will establish himself as the worst three-year starter in college football history.

- I wonder who are the lunatics that are so excited about seeing pictures of a baby. But, then again, I am legitimately excited about Paraguay-Sweden.

- I wonder who are the geniuses that came up with the "cumulative yellow cards" rule in soccer. If someone picks up a yellow card in game one and a yellow card in game two, they are automatically suspended for game three. That is the equal to Dirk Nowitzki preventing an easy layup in game five and hacking Shaq in game six and being suspended for the biggest game of his life.

- I wonder who is a better player in the American League than Vernon Wells.

- I wonder who would guard Dirk Nowitzki on the 1986 Celtics.

- I wonder how the latest controversy affects Jason Grimsley's Hall of Fame chances.

- I wonder if boxing will ever return to the level it was at even ten years ago. I called at least 10 different restaurants and sports bars Saturday and not a single one was showing Hopkins/Tarver.

- I wonder just how long it will be before the Yankees upgrade their outfield. My guess would be no more than two weeks.

I'd Probably Just Ignore These . . .

World Cup predictions from an uneducated soccer fan . . .

Group A (Top 2 in each group advance)

Will Win: Germany. Host countries always thrive. Doesn't hurt that the group looks like it was divised by Helmut Kohl .
Will Advance: Poland. Star goalkeeper and Champions League hero Jerzy Dudek didn't make the team.
Will Compete: Ecuador. Managed to defeat Brazil and Argentina as they were qualifying.
Will Bottomfeed: Costa Rica. Despite beating the U.S. in the U.S. to qualify, a point would be a success.

Group B

Will Win: England. With Rooney or without, they still shouldn't break a sweat in this group.
Will Advance: Sweden. Won death-group in '02. Should advance here.
Will Compete: Paraguay. Usually a tough out in the World Cup, will give Sweden all they can handle.
Will Bottomfeed: Trinidad and Tobago. If this were the NCAA tournament, they'd be Fairleigh Dickinson.

Group C

Will Win: Cote d'Ivoire: Book it. Africa's best team has one of the world's best players in Didier Drogba. The supporting cast is better than you'd think as well. The Coast of Ivory is going to shock the world.
Will Advance: Argentina: A world power, but will they be able to recover when the aforementioned Elephants knock them off on Saturday?
Will Compete: The Netherlands. They just faced Australia at home, tied, and lost nearly a third of their team to injuries. Didn't qualify in 2002.
Will Bottomfeed: Serbia & Montenegro. Not as much of a bottom feeder as others in this year's tournament. Some people actually think they will advance. This is the best group of the bunch.

Group D

Will Win: Portugal. My sleeper to win the thing. Must bounce back from disappointing '02.
Will Advance: Mexico. Don't like them. Don't respect them. But they are better than the other two.
Will Compete, I guess: Angola. They are the reason Martins, Utaka, Enyeama and the rest of my favorite FIFA team, Nigeria, are sitting at home.
Will Bottomfeed: Iran. The match with Angola might be a barnburner.

Group E

Will Win: Italy. As long as they stay away from fixing matches, they should be OK. Group is difficult, though, and the pizzalovers were so-so in 2002.
Will Advance: United States. Being underrated by people here on our own soil. The FIFA rankings may be skewed, but you can't ignore the fifth ranked team in all the land.
Will Compete: Czech Republic. This is the second ranked team in the world. It will all come down to the first match with the U.S. I'm going with the home team.
Will Bottomfeed: Ghana.I believe in African soccer. I believe Ghana will scare someone. But, I believe they will finish last.

Group F

Will Win: Brazil. Are you surprised?
Will Advance: Australia. Sort of an upset pick, but I was impressed by the Netherlands draw and GK Cahill may be able to steal one.
Will Compete: Croatia. Randomly third in 1998.
Will Bottomfeed: Japan. Not the worst team in the field. Did advance to round of 16 in 2002. On home soil.

Group G

Will Win: France. Easy draw, lots of talent, and motivation after a pitiful showing in '02. They also avoid Senegal this year, which is a plus.
Will Advance: Switzerland. Almost by default.
Will Compete: Togo. Defeated Senegal to make it to the Cup. Watch out, France.
Will Bottomfeed: South Korea. Just lost handily to Ghana in a friendly. The magic of being hosts won't be with them this year.

Group H

Will Win: Ukraine: I just can't root for Spain. They better not take the Ukrainians lightly. They were lights out in qualifying lead by Slava Medvedenko. Er, Andriy Shevchenko.
Will Advance: Tunisia. Another African sleeper. A gut feeling tells me they find a way.
Will Compete, but ultimately embarass themselves: Spain. Lots of talent, but not enough chemistry. Will beat Saudi Arabia handily.
Will Bottomfeed: Saudi Arabia. File under "Happy to Be There. Again. Somehow."

6 Thoughts on 06/06/06

1) I hope that all the hosts and callers of WEEI are on record with their hasty conclusions on the Bronson Arroyo-Wily Mo Pena deal. Admittedly, ther 'Nati has had the better end of the deal over the past two months. Bronson Arroyo is off to a hot start in the national league and, now, Wily Mo is on the disabled list and David Pauley is the team's fifth starter. In vintage sports radio form, the trade has already been labeled a "mistake", a "failure" and a "joke." Ultimately, they may be right. Bronson Arroyo might turn into an all star pitcher and Wily Mo may never develop into anything more than a platoon outfielder. But let's look at the two and see if this deal really can be considered "one of the worst in baseball history":

Pena - The most glaring number on Wily Mo's baseball card is 24. That's his age. He turned 24 in January. He is over a year younger than Jonathan Papelbon, over two year's younger than NL Rookie of the Year Ryan Howard. Most players under 25 are considered prospects and haver potential. Why is Pena any different? It seems as though people wanted him to be a 40 HR guy right away and those kind of expectations are simply too high. David Ortiz was a rookie at 24 and managed ten homeruns. Derrek Lee had his first good season at 24. Carlos Delgado did, also. Will Pena be the next David Ortiz? Probably not. But I'm not giving up on him yet, especially with Trot Nixon's contract running out this year.

Arroyo - 29 years old. Career .500 pitcher entering this year. Though he usually provides quality starts, career ERA is 4.50. Undoubtedly, he was a great guy and wanted desperately to play in Boston. He is off to a great start, but doing so in the National League. With his stuff, it is hard to believe he'll ever become anything more than a better-than-average pitcher.

Bronson is going to have the better year this year. He might have the better year next year. But he is five years older than a guy who has proven he can hit for power in the major leagues. In two years, when Pena is heading towards a .280-35-120 season, everyone on WEEI will claim that they always believed in the trade. I believe in the trade now.

2) The NBA finals are going to be enjoyable and difficult to predict. I can't imagine not enjoying the NBA finals, but even "casual viewers" should enjoy Shaq/Wade/Pat Riley vs. Dirk/Cubes. Story lines abound and the basketball should be entertaining also. I am rooting for Miami (the Walker factor), but I will take Dallas in 7. The determining factor is going to be the two-headed Dampier/Diop monster. O'Neal is motivated to get another ring. The Mavs won't be able to stop him, but they (particulary Diop) did a sufficient job of containing Duncan and they will need to do it again in this series. Nowitzki on the other hand simply can't be contained. I'm convinced that he is the best player in the NBA. He is a particularly bad matchup for the Heat. Udonis Haslem is nowhere near quick enough. Antoine Walker would get torched. James Posey is probably the guy but he is only 6-8 and has been playing about 25 minuts per game. O'Neal and Wade will keep every game close but Nowitzki will be too much, especially with games 6 and 7 in Dallas.

3) Antoine Walker is still, far and away, my favorite NBA player, but his game has devolved to historic proportions. This is a guy who averaged 17 and 9 as a rookie. This is a guy who was an all-star in his second year. He's been to three mid-season classics. He's averaged 20 points or more 6 times. He was on the cover of NBA Live '99. Before this year, he averaged almost nine rebounds a game for his career. He lead his college to a national title.

Now, who is Antoine Walker? He's a three point specialist who isn't even very good at shooting 3's. He averaged 12 points and 5 rebounds. He is a role player. Almost fifty percent of his shots are threes. He has no back-to-the basket game to speak of. He can't shoot free throws. He doesn't rebound. Most people attribute this to the fact that he is playing with Shaq and DWade. This is bogus. Just because you are playing with good players doesn't mean you're game has to get worse. Watching Walker, you would think that he i a 38 year old gunner giving it one last shot. He's 29. He should be in the prime of his career. Third option or not, he should not be an afterthought. He should still be able to take games over. Employee #8 has been a good soldier in Miami, but it is hard to believe he used to be a great basketball player.

4) NBADraft.net has the Celtics taking Villanova's Randy Foye with the #7 overall pick. That is exactly who I hope they end up with. Foye isn't a perfect prospect. He might not be an NBA all-star, but he is the most polished player and could help the Celtics next year. Foye can shoot, can make his own shot and is an adequate defender. The Celtics don't need another project (Bargnani), another raw big man (Aldridge) or an average point guard that may or may not beat out Orien Greene next year (Williams). Assuming Adam Morrison and Tyrus Thomas are long gone, that will leave the Celtics with Foye, Rodney Carney, Brandon Roy or Rudy Gay. They all have question marks: Carney's jump shot, Roy's athleticism and Gay's experience. Foye lacks size, but if he could convert himself into a point guard, that would be all the better.

5) The Jonathan Sullivan for Bethel Johnson trade is essentially a bust-for-bust swap. It is seemingly impossible to try to figure who got the better end of such a deal. Sullivan had enough talent to be a top 10 pick. If Belichick and co. can't get anything out of him, he doesn't have anything. People have been saying Sullivan can't keep himself in shape and lacks motivation. If he doesn't change that, he'll be gone in August. Just ask David Terrell. Bethel Johnson didn't come into the league with as much acclaim, but his speed made Patriots fans envision a guy who could dramatically help the offense. It never happened. For a myriad of reasons (injuries, work ethic, unable to grasp offense), Bethel didn't play much over the last three years. He was a productive kick returner and made some big catches, but spent too much time on the pine. It's actually sort of shocking that he hung on this long. Coach Bill doesn't waste space on the 53. You can't teach speed, however, and that Johnson still has. With all his problems, it's surprising the Pats were able to pick up a player even of Sullivan's quality. Although, the Saints may be thinking exactly the opposite. Only time will tell if either player makes any sort of impact.

6) After watching Game 1 of the Stanley Cup finals tonight on the OLNVS Channel 65 network (a welcome retrieve from the Sox debacle), it made me even more upset at the sorry state of Boston's NHL team. The Bruins had (another) chance to start over in a positive way this offseason. They had a chance to hire a new GM, a new coach, get some new blood into the morose organization. Any signs of life would have appeased Bruins nation, even if just a little. Instead, they found a way to bungle everything. First, they have allowed coach Mike Sullivan to remain a lame duck coach for far too long. The guy didn't get the job done. It's time for a change. Why let it fester? Then, media and fans were lead to believe that the B's had found their GM: Ray Shero. The deal was done. And then, as always, money came into play. Within days, Shero was out of the running. A scroll down the list of candidates lead to Peter Chiarelli. Again, the Bruins botched the deal. They actually managed to get Chiarelli in the fold. Well, sort of. In order to get him, they had to part ways with a high draft pick, something very rare for a move like this in professional sports. Despite this, Chiarelli still works for the Senators. He doesn't work for the Bruins yet. With the draft and free agency around the corner, the Bruins now have no GM. The man in charge (Harry Sinden) has most likely reached the point of senilus maximus. He can't even put sentences together. I wish I could say that these problems are something new, but they are more the norm. The Carolina Hurricanes can become a great franchise, but an original six team in a great hockey city is good for nothing more than a few laughs.

All right, that's it for now. In the very near future, I will have a World Cup preview up and continue with the 100 greatest games feature.